Public health policy
See how a vaccine mandate design changes public support, lives saved and cost
Choose a country and a mandate design. This tool estimates how many people would support that mandate, how many lives it could save, and how the benefits compare with the costs. Everything updates as you go, so you can explore options in minutes.
Built for decision makers and for anyone new to the topic. No sign in. Your work stays in this browser.
Build the mandate
Population and value settings
Implementation costs optional
Leave blank to see health benefits only. Add costs to see net benefit and the benefit to cost ratio.
Total costs: not entered
Your results are up to date.
Results
Predicted public support
67percent
Moderate support
About two in three people would support this mandate over no mandate.
How this support estimate is calculated
The support estimate is calculated from a two-class latent-class choice model. The model estimates support separately for each preference class and then averages those predictions using the estimated size of each class in the selected country and outbreak scenario.
It is the model-predicted probability of supporting the selected mandate policy over no mandate. It is an estimate of acceptability from stated preferences, not a forecast of behaviour or compliance.
Benefits and costs
What this means
Set a design on the left to see a plain language summary here.
Charts
A breakdown of predicted support.
| Group | Share (percent) |
|---|
Support within each preference class and the weighted overall figure.
| Preference class | Class share | Class support | Weighted contribution |
|---|
Health benefit against cost.
| Item | Value |
|---|
Which inputs matter most for the ratio.
Add costs to see which inputs matter most.
| Input | Ratio low | Ratio high |
|---|
If the health benefit is higher or lower
Automatic range using 10, your value, and 40 lives saved per 100,000.
- Lives saved
- to be calculated
- Public support
- to be calculated
- Benefit to cost ratio
- enter costs
Other health effects
- Hospital admissions avoided
- 0
- Intensive care admissions avoided
- 0
- Working days saved
- 0
These are rough conversions from lives saved and are not added to the money value above.
Compare your saved options
Save two or more options above, then compare them side by side. Export when you are ready.
No saved options yet. Build a mandate above and choose Save this option.
| Option | Country | Outbreak | Support | Lives saved | Benefit | Cost | Net benefit | Ratio | Actions |
|---|
Turn this into a policy report
The tool writes a clear, detailed prompt from your current option and any saved options. Send it to an assistant of your choice to draft a first version of a policy brief. Always check the result before use.
How it works
Plain language first, with the detail a level down.
Public support
People in Australia, France and Italy completed a survey where they chose between vaccine mandate designs and a no-mandate option. The support estimate uses a two-class latent-class choice model. For each selected mandate design, the tool estimates support separately for each preference class, then averages those estimates using the estimated share of each class in the selected country and outbreak situation. The result is predicted policy support from stated preferences, not a forecast of actual behaviour.
Lives saved and money value
Lives saved for every 100,000 people is scaled up to the population you set. That total is multiplied by the money value you give to each life saved. The original study looked at 10 to 40 lives saved per 100,000, so values outside that range are flagged as an extrapolation.
Costs and the ratio
If you enter costs, the tool adds them up, subtracts them from the benefit to give net benefit, and divides benefit by cost to give the benefit to cost ratio. Above 1 means benefits are larger than costs under your assumptions.
What this tool does not do
It does not decide whether a mandate is right. Legal, ethical, fairness and political questions sit outside the numbers and need separate judgement.